At a Crossroads:
A Critical Analysis of the Effects of the Current Refugee Crisis on an
Economically Vulnerable Greece; Cause, Impact & Implications
September 2nd 2015: many people worldwide
awoke to see a heart-wrenching photo going viral across their Twitter feeds.
With the hashtag “KiyiyaVuranInsanlik” meaning “Humanity Washed Ashore” in
Turkish, the depiction of 3-year-old Aylan Kurdi’s body washed up on a Greek
island beach was too much for many to bear. Like multitudes of other displaced
persons fleeing war-torn Syria, his family paid smugglers, donned fake lifejackets
and entered the cold Aegean Sea. Although the world was captivated by the tragedy,
it did not begin to realize the totality of the unique convergence of
circumstances that has created a complex milieu of economic, political and
humanitarian concerns regarding refugees seeking to enter the EU through
Greece. Since the Greek government debt crisis and global Great Recession
occurred simultaneously with external conflicts such as the Syrian Civil War,
Greece, as a perimeter entry point it has found itself financially burdened by
an explosion of refugees from conflict regions disproportionate to other EU
member states.
The Great Recession of 2007-2009, also known as the
global financial crisis, is considered by most economists to have been the worst
financial crisis since the Great Depression. The catalyst for this far-reaching
event originated within the U.S. housing market where the risky practice of
sub-prime mortgage lending led to high default rates and foreclosures. Housing
prices fell by as much as fifty percent in some areas (Grusky, 4). An economic
“chain reaction” threatened large financial institutions and spread world-wide
as stock markets, national governments, and foreign financial institutions
prompting fears of a global economic collapse. World trade fell by up to 30%
and the world’s wealth literally vaporized as $11 trillion was lost globally
(Roberts, ii).
The Greek government-debt crisis started in late 2009, as
a direct result of the Great Recession. As one of the 28 member states within
the European Union (EU), Greece is bound by the Stability and Growth Pact which
sets public debt limits at 60% of GDP, budget deficits at 3% of GDP, and
prevents bailouts of any kind (Lane, 49). Greece failed on all accounts due to
structural weaknesses in the economy and deceptive reporting of government debt
levels and deficits ("Acropolis Now."). Additional strains to the
Greek economy were exasperated by a lack of heavy industry or manufacturing.
For a country whose “lifeblood” is tourism, the global financial meltdown meant
far fewer euros at a time they could least afford it (Pournara). Government tax increases, spending
cuts and reforms triggered riots and large scale protests. The government
required a series of bailout loans from the IMF, Eurogroup, and the European
Central Bank to no avail. Greece became the first developed country to default
on an IMF loan (Becatoros). By 2015 the debt level reached 323 billion Euros or
33,000 Euros per citizen; an unsustainable financial condition for any nation
(BBC). The situation was worsening.
The end result of the Greek government debt crisis, the
Great Recession, and failing tourism industry manifested itself in the
decimated daily lives of millions of citizens. Tens of thousands found
themselves homeless and 20% of all shops in Athens are empty (Hope). One out of
four Greeks were unemployed; a condition that has not improved since
(Eurostat). By 2015, 1 in 5 Greeks could not meet daily food expenses (Zeitchik).
As a proud culture with strong social and family structures, Greece barely
needed to measure such things as hunger and homelessness in the past. Now, it has
consumed the national conversation.
The financial crisis in Greece propagated extreme
antagonism between the nation and other member-states within the EU. In fact,
many analysts fear the situation would “not only sink Greece but also the euro
and the idea of the European Union itself” (Chu). Many feel as though the
animosity between the country and the EU could lead to a “Grexit” or Greek exit
from the union similar to the one Britain voted for recently (Smith). Greeks
feel abandoned and other member-states have an increasingly negative opinion of
them as their debt crisis is threatening the stability of the entire region.
The sentiment is building in that many Greeks resent EU meddling in their
affairs. Only a third has a positive view of the relationship (Pew Research
Center). Eighty-five percent say that the EU does not understand the needs of
their citizens (Stokes). This tenuous relationship will become even more strained
by the refugee crisis looming on the horizon.
The Syrian Civil War grew out of the 2011 Arab Spring
simultaneously with the Greek financial crisis. Protesters calling for the
removal of President Bashar al-Assad were met with violent responses by
government forces killing over 5,000 in just the first nine months (Malla). In
the years since, the conflict has become a “proxy war” with the U.S.S.R backing
the Assad regime and the U.S. supporting the opposition (Barnard). By 2015,
10.9 million Syrians (half the population) had been displaced with many looking
West towards Greece as a place of refuge (OCHA). With over half of the refugee
population in Greece originating from Syria, the ongoing conflict has
exacerbated the already dire economic conditions there. The situation is
worsening. According to the European Commission’s policy brief, by late 2015
almost 70% of all detections (undocumented entries) in the Eastern
Mediterranean were Syrian Nationals (EMN).
Other global conflicts like that in Afghanistan have
contributed to the influx of refugees into Greece seeking entry to the EU.
One-quarter of all refugees in Greece have fled the decades of conflict in
Afghanistan. Although many of the 3.7 million displaced from the country have
settled in neighboring Iran and Pakistan, their status there is uncertain.
According to Human Rights watch, Iranian officials tend to “deport thousands of
undocumented Afghans without allowing them the opportunity to demonstrate a
legal right to remain in Iran or to lodge an asylum application” (Niland). The
options for many Afghan refugees are rather limited considering their treatment
by neighboring host countries coupled with the dim prospect of repatriation to
a devastated homeland. Again, the EU represents their best chance for improved
lives and Greece being the most readily accessible entry point.
The balances of the displaced seeking entry to the EU
through Greece originate from Iraq, Iran, and Pakistan. Regional conflict, political
instability and proximity to the “Eastern Mediterranean Route” effectively
“funnel” asylum seekers towards Greece. This is an unfortunate geographic
anomaly for countries like Greece at a time when they can least afford it.
One of
the most significant factors which place a disadvantage on Greece as a
perimeter entry point to the EU can be traced back to the controversial Dublin
Regulations (1997, 2003, and 2008). The primary goals of this agreement is to
prevent asylum seekers from “shopping” applications in multiple nations and
prescribes that the EU country where they first land is responsible for
processing their applications and caring for the applicant while they await a
decision (THE COUNCIL OF THE EUROPEAN UNION). At the height of the European
refugee and migrant crisis in 2015 many member states disregarded the agreement,
refusing to accept back asylum seekers who were located elsewhere leading to a
partial suspension of the requirements. Cracks were beginning to form in the EU
caused primarily by this agreement. Yet, for the refugee seeking a better life
on the continent, survival meant crossing the sea, legalities be damned.
The Mediterranean crossing is an extremely dangerous one.
A disturbing trend is revealing itself as the death tolls for asylum seekers
have continued to rise over the past few years. Although the Central
Mediterranean route (Libya to Italy) tends to be more deadly, the Aegean is
increasingly experiencing rising casualties due to the shifting dynamics of
regional conflicts outside of Northern Africa (IOM). 2015 saw a huge shift
taking place with Greece overtaking Italy as the primary point of arrival for
asylum seekers (UNHCR). The European Border and Coast Guard Agency (FRONTEX)
has reported that “In 2015, some 885,000 [illegal] migrants arrived in the EU
via the Eastern Mediterranean route – 17 times the number in 2014, which was itself a record year”
(Frontex). The future shows no signs of improvement as the UN have called 2016
“The deadliest year ever for migrants crossing the Mediterranean” where an asylum seeker faces a 1 in 88 chance
they might die trying to reach the EU through the Eastern route (Kennedy).
Great numbers of bodies are washing up on Aegean beaches with no end in sight.
The Greek islands off the coast of Turkey have borne the
brunt of the crisis. This is in part due to the construction of a 10.5 km fence
on the mainland between the two countries in 2012. The 4-meter-tall,
barbed-wire fence secured the only portion of the 125-mile shared border not
naturally defended by the Evros River. At a cost of 3 million euros, the fence
cut illegal entries on the mainland by 95% causing many refugees to seek out
the more dangerous sea crossings (Ekathimerini). Greece has over 6,000 islands
spread far across the Aegean and Ionian Seas but only 227 are inhabited (Greek
Islands). The islands of Lesbos, Chios, and Kos have garnered the majority of
recent attention as they are closest to the Turkish mainland. As the death toll
mounted in the Aegean, and the monumental proportions of the situation were not
improving, international aid agencies began to take notice.
The UNHCR has taken a leading role in trying to relieve
the devastating impact of such great numbers of refugees attempting to gain
entry to the EU through Greece. At the time of this writing, 62,000 refugees
are located in Greece all needed emergency resources (Harris). The agency has
called upon the EU to increase humanitarian efforts in Greece calling the
crisis “shameful” (Kambas). In an effort to assist, the UNHCR has opened
reception centers on the islands of Lesbos, Chios, Samos, Leros and Kos. Unfortunately,
the camps have degraded to becoming “closed” facilities; basically detention
centers deemed deplorable by human rights watchers where asylum seekers wait
for extended periods in administrative limbo (Tineke). Conditions have become
so bad that in October, refugees rioted and set fire to the Moria camp located
on Lesbos (Associated Press). Following a visit in April, Pope Francis was
moved by what he saw there and brought twelve Syrian Muslims to Italy aboard
his own plane (Boghani). The situation was at a breaking point and Greece officials
were once again looking towards the EU for viable solutions.
The winds of change are blowing across the Aegean as the
EU-Turkey deal on Migrant Crisis seeks to relieve the pressure placed on Greece
as a perimeter entry point to the EU. On March 18th of this year the
28 EU heads of state forged an agreement that allows Greece to return to Turkey
“all new irregular migrants” that reach the troubled nation (Collett). In turn,
The EU agreed that for every returned Syrian migrant to Turkey, one Syrian
already in Turkey will be resettled in the EU (News, BBC). The agreement
targets the people smugglers’ business model in order to remove their incentive
to seek out irregular routes to the EU. The agreement was not without
controversy.
Since its hurried implementation just two days after
signing, the EU/Turkey Agreement has been heavily criticized. As seen in past
examples like the Evros wall, once one route is closed, smugglers and refugees
merely adjust and look towards other paths to enter the EU (Delfs). Human
rights advocates are even questioning the legality of the agreement. The
leading group, the Council of Europe, listed a number of indictments against the
deal shortly after it was put in place. First, they claim that inadequate legal
protections for refugees wishing to appeal rejection decisions. This has led
one Dutch parliamentarian to suggest, “Even on paper, it raises many serious
questions of compatibility with basic norms on refugees’ and migrants’ rights.
It has so far given every indication of being even more problematic in
practice” (Rankin). Second, they cite the overcrowded and unsanitary conditions
in the Greek detention centers as inhumane and not representative of what
Western civilization should be demonstrating to the world. Prior to the riot
and fire at Moria, aid workers warned that due to deplorable conditions and
slow-moving asylum claims the camp was “a ticking time bomb” (Jones). The terms
of the agreement also raises questions as to what happens to refugees once they
are returned to Turkey.
When Syrian refugees leave Turkey for Greece it is for
good reason. There are over 2.5 million refugees residing there already having
fled the turmoil of civil war in their homeland (Sreenivasan). Even with EU
funding to help keep Syrian refugees in Turkey, they cannot build camps fast
enough. In fact, the dozens of camps along the Syrian/Turkish border are full
upon completion and severely overcrowded. As a camp resident, they are not
allowed to work outside the facilities (Cerre). The same conditions that
initially caused Syrian refugees to risk the ocean crossing await them as they
are returned leading to a cycle of despair and unending hopelessness. One
report even claims that Turkey is only sending the sick and ill-educated to
Europe in the migrant swap deal, something no one ever imagined at signing
(Ensor). Only time will tell if the implementation of the agreement will stem
the tide of Syrian refugees attempting to use Turkey and Greece as a “stepping
stone” to the EU while at the same time doing with humane and legal safeguards.
For an already financially devastated Greece, they need look no further than
home to see how this crisis is revealing a critical vulnerability.
The effects of the refugee crisis have impacted important
sectors of the economy. As mentioned earlier, Greeks are substantially reliant
upon tourism, an industry incompatible with bodies washing up on pristine
island beaches. The size and status of Lesbos as the third largest Greek island
has made it the preferred destination for asylum seekers crossing from Turkey.
Holiday visitors from around the world travel to Lesbos; but for quite
different reasons. “The Greek National Tourism Organization (GNTO) describes
the Dodecanese [Lesbos included] as a haven of crystal clear waters, sandy or
pebbly beaches” where visitors can enjoy “the destinations culture, gastronomy,
and excellent weather” (Leadbetter). “Often, the two worlds would jarringly
intersect - here the vacationers from affluent and stable European countries
dining at a seaside restaurant, while over there, a hundred meters away,
destitute and desperate refugees arriving, wet and hungry, after a perilous
journey in an inflatable boat from Turkey” (Angelopoulou). The industry was
beginning to notice severe impacts as the refugee situation worsened.
Tourism represents 20% of Greek GDP overall, but for
islands like Lesbos, it’s closer to 100%. With bookings on the island down 90%,
hotel and tavern owners are now serving international aid workers instead of
vacationers (Angelopoulou). Cruise ship dockings are down by almost 50% and
2017 estimates according to booked itineraries are not much better
(Chrysopoulos). As a testament to the
great numbers of crossings, there is an immense “mountain” of discarded
life-jackets near Skala Skaminias growing ever larger as 2,000 or more refugees
arrive each day (Strickland). “Without a more comprehensive solution from the
European Union, the Greek government fears that the unabated flow of refugees
and its impact on the economy risks boosting xenophobic elements in the
country, said a senior government official” (Marans).
Deeply affected by severe economic conditions and the influx
of great numbers of refugees, many Greeks have gravitated towards right-wing
nationalist parties like the Golden Dawn party. Originally founded in 1980, the
party remained relatively insignificant until the 2,000’s where they found new
strength in opposing the increase in immigrant populations (mainly Muslims) who
they feared would alter the Greek social landscape (Kitsantonis). The Golden
Dawn has no problem using a “swastika-like” symbol, using violence and
intimidation, and promoting fascist ideals in their response to what they feel
is the greatest threat to Greek culture; the influx of refugees. The
ultra-nationalist party has even realized political legitimization as of late,
even so far as being elected to Parliament where their platform is centered
upon total expulsion of all immigrants in Greece (Pennie). Just as the economic
conditions in the Weimar Republic of 1930’s Germany paved the way for the Nazi
party, many observers fear a similar path is forming in Greece as they continue
to struggle with this unique confluence of contributing factors.
The economic outlook for Greece is dismal. The country
has failed to enter a “recovery phase” and a contracting GDP has many fearing a
total collapse (FocusEconomics). The EU is working with the country in an
attempt to pressure creditors for more relief and the government for more
austerity measures. This dire outlook makes it even more imperative for the
troubled country to continue to receive help from the union in regards to the
refugee situation.
Forecasters see equally disturbing indicators that show
the refugee crisis will not end anytime soon. Despite the EU/Turkey Agreement,
refugee camps are still bursting at the seams and ocean crossings seem to be
increasing not decreasing as many had hoped (Squires). This prompted Save the
Children director Katie Dimmer to lament, “We’re nearly back at square one. As
the number of arrivals creeps up again, we’re starting to see scenes
reminiscent of last summer. Except this time, most asylum seekers are unable to
continue their journeys, and are trapped on the islands, in overcrowded facilities,
and under the blazing sun” (Lowe). If there is any hope in sight, it lies
within the willingness or not of the EU to commit more resources to aid
Greece’s dilemma, an acceleration of asylum application processing, and
stricter adherences to the return policies dictated by the EU/Turkey agreement.
In 1991, an extraordinary confluence of unrelated meteorological
events off the Eastern Seaboard of the United States became known as “The
Perfect Storm.” Any one of these weather anomalies alone would have had severe
consequences for the vulnerable coastal region. The Halloween Gale, Hurricane
Grace, an erratic cold front, and area of low pressure all converged causing 13
deaths and over $200 million dollars in property damage. Using this analogy is
the best way to understand the extraordinary confluence of concerning events
that are having a prolonged and persistent negative effect on the Greek nation. The Great Recession, Greek Government Debt
Crisis, and the recent influx of great numbers of refugees flooding into Greece
have produced a similar “Perfect Storm” devastating to the, economy of, and
more importantly, people of Greece. The tenuous relationship between Greece and
the EU threatens all of Europe and the very fabric of the union. Right-wing
nationalist are gaining political traction by leveraging rising xenophobia and
economic concern. The “Cradle of Democracy” is at risk of a total economic
collapse as the rest of the World recovers (albeit slowly) from the Global
Recession unburdened by the compounding of socio-economic concerns of the 11
million Greeks spread across the Aegean. Aeschylus, writing in Prometheus Bound suggested “Oh it is
easy for the one who stands outside the prison-wall of pain to exhort and teach
the one in pain” (AESCHYLUS). Likewise, it is easy for outside observers to
dictate remedies to the Greek people. Only time will reveal whether they will find
adequate solutions before they irreversibly descend into fascism.
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